Historical Parallels

Compare current market conditions to historical patterns

Current Market Conditions
Based on latest indicator readings

VIX

18.5

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

0.15%

Unemployment

4.1%

S&P 500 YTD

+2.5%

Historical Patterns

2008 Financial Crisis

Sep 2008 - Mar 2009

72% match

Credit crisis triggered by subprime mortgage collapse. VIX spiked to 80, yield curve inverted 6 months prior.

2020 COVID Crash

Feb 2020 - Mar 2020

65% match

Fastest bear market in history followed by fastest recovery. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary response.

1970s Stagflation

1973 - 1982

58% match

Extended period of high inflation and slow growth. Oil shocks, wage-price spiral, and Fed policy errors.

2000 Dot-Com Bust

Mar 2000 - Oct 2002

45% match

Tech bubble burst after extreme valuations. NASDAQ fell 78% from peak. Value stocks outperformed.

2008 Financial Crisis
Sep 2008 - Mar 2009
72% similarity

Credit crisis triggered by subprime mortgage collapse. VIX spiked to 80, yield curve inverted 6 months prior.

Sep 08Oct 08Nov 08Dec 08Jan 09Feb 09Mar 09035070010501400
  • 2008 Financial Crisis

VIX Peak

45

Yield Curve

-0.5%

Unemployment

6.5%

Max Drawdown

-35%

What Happened Next

S&P 500 (6 months)

-25%

S&P 500 (12 months)

+15%

Recession Duration

18 months

Key Lessons

  • Credit spreads widened significantly before equity selloff
  • Fed cut rates aggressively but market continued falling
  • Recovery began before economic data improved